Earlier this month we learned that the country added 236,000 new jobs in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%. That’s the lowest it has been since December 2008, when the rate was 7.3%.
These are all good signs that the labor market is strengthening and the economy is finally on the mend. And a new survey just released by ManpowerGroup, an employment services firm, supports such optimism.
The survey, released quarterly, reveals that employers in all 50 states intend to increase their payrolls during the three-month period ending in June. It also tells us exactly where they intend to increase them the most, and where their hopes lag behind.
Manpower surveyed more than 18,000 employers in 100 metropolitan areas to find out who’s hiring, who’s firing and who plans to maintain their current staff levels in the second quarter of 2013. Of the surveyed employers, 18% anticipate an increase in staffing levels in their second quarter hiring plans, while 5% expect a decrease in payrolls. The difference between those numbers gives you what ManpowerGroup calls a net employment outlook of 13%–or 11% when seasonally adjusted, which is still up from 10% for the same period last year. Seventy-three percent of employers expect no change in their staffing, and the final 4% are uncertain.
Melanie Holmes, a vice president with ManpowerGroup, says U.S. employers remain cautiously optimistic about their hiring plans for the second quarter. “The optimism is widespread, with positive outlooks in the 100 metro areas surveyed, as well as all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Given the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, this measured approach is in line with expectations.”
In Pictures: The Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This Spring
The survey found that the metropolitan areas with the most optimistic forecast of all for hiring this spring are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., and Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, Maine. Both regions enjoy a 23% net employment outlook, the percentage of employers that expect to add employees (25% and 27%, respectively) minus the percentage that expect to reduce their workforce (a mere 2% and 4%, respectively). Another 73% in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area said they anticipate no change. In the Portland region, 66% expect to maintain staff levels, while 3% of employers are undecided about their hiring plans.
“We have seen consistent improvement in the overall economy in Silicon Valley for over 18 months now and don’t see any signs of this changing in the near term,” says Steve Van Dorn, president and CEO of the Santa Clara Chamber of Commerce and Convention-Visitors Bureau. “High tech jobs are still in high demand–but hospitality and other service jobs are being hired as the Silicon Valley economy continues to improve.”
Matthew Mahood, president and chief executive of the San Jose Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce, adds: “While we never take anything for granted, the Silicon Valley is known for its entrepreneurism, hi-tech companies and a highly qualified, educated workforce representing many countries. Our employees work hard, collaborate and innovate. The products invented here are changing the world. Nearly 60% of all venture capital being invested in the U.S. is being invested in the Silicon Valley. In each of the last several economic cycles, the Silicon Valley has led the country in job growth–and in time that job growth spurs job growth in other regions where Silicon Valley-based companies have a presence or they have related vendors or supply chain operations. When the Silicon Valley’s economy is growing, it is usually not to long before the rest of the country follows.”
Some of the region’s biggest employers include: Apple, Microsoft, eBay, Cisco, Lockheed Martin, Applied Materials, Marvell, SAP, Oracle, HP, Adobe, Intel, Google, Facebook, Dell and Santa Clara University.
“Silicon Valley is an exciting and demanding region to live, work and play,” Van Dorn says. “It draws the best and brightest due to our track record of innovation and creating the next biggest idea. We also have excellent weather, diverse communities, excellent educational opportunities, a passionate arts community, strong professional sports teams and [we’re at] the center of innovation.”
Mahood adds: “San Jose is located next to the San Francisco Bay and on the Peninsula, a half-hour from the Pacific Ocean. It’s one of the prettiest environments anywhere and one of the kindest climates. Physically, it feels great to live in San Jose. That’s why people relocate here and businesses want to operate here. You won’t find an ocean or bay in the middle of Texas. We have 300 days of sunshine; mild weather; amazing outdoor activities abound; great restaurants, museums, arts, and sports. We pretty much have it all.”
Chris Hall, chief executive of the Portland Regional Chamber, says he’s “very pleasantly surprised [to hear that the Portland area is one of the best cities for jobs this spring]–and happy to see that the momentum we feel here in the Portland region is justified by the numbers.”
Hall says he’s seeing “real competition for talent taking off in our region.”
“Just last week we heard the CEO of WEX talk about closing the skills gap in his economic sector by actively doubling the number of computer scientists coming out of the University of Maine system,” Hall says.
Information technology, bio-science and insurance remain strong sectors in the Portland area. “Of course the hospitality industry has been an historic leader in our economy,” Hall adds. “And professional services continue to come to the region.”
Hall says the region is being recognized as a “vibrant place to work, live and play.” He continues: “The number of national rankings we’ve recently received testifies to the growing strength of our region.”
Employers in Salt Lake City, Utah, and Tucson, Ariz., also anticipate a significant upswing in hiring for the next quarter.
Nearly a quarter (24%) of Salt Lake City employers reported positive forecasts, while 2% drew a bleaker picture. Seventy-one percent said they wouldn’t be changing their employment levels and the remaining 3% were unsure of their hiring plans. With a net employment outlook of 22%, Salt Lake is the third best place for finding a job this spring.
“Utah’s economic success used to be one of the best kept secrets in the nation, but that has shifted significantly in the past few years,” says Lane Beattie, president and CEO of the Salt Lake Chamber. “We’ve been ranked as the best state for business and careers by Forbes three years in a row, and we consistently rank as one of the fastest growing and best managed states. We have something very special going on in our state. Our business community is organized, united and ready to work with our elected officials. And we have a very pro-business governor and Legislature. That combination is rare, and it is the primary reason our economy is performing as well as it has.”
Beattie says Salt Lake City has “a low cost of living and a high quality of life that you just can’t beat.”
He adds: “If you love the outdoors, there’s no place better. You can ski the ‘Greatest Snow on Earth’ at eleven world class resorts within an hour drive of downtown. There’s also plenty to do off the slopes from biking to fishing to kayaking—more activities than I can succinctly name. And downtown there is no shortage of art, culture and gourmet dining.”
Tucson enjoys the same rank as Salt Lake City. Twenty-seven percent of the metro area’s hiring managers anticipate a bright second quarter. Meanwhile, 5% expect to decrease their payrolls, 66% anticipate no change and 2% are uncertain. This yields a net employment outlook of 22%.
“The Tucson Metro Chamber works very hard to promote a strong local economy, so we are not surprised that our work has had positive results,” says Michael Varney, president and chief executive of the Tucson Metro Chamber. “At the same time, recognition of this nature is always a pleasant surprise.”
Which industries are doing particularly well in Tucson? Healthcare, technology and service sectors seem to be out in front, Varney says. “We have a number of excellent healthcare facilities in our region. Renewed in-migration seems to have picked up. With that influx of new residents will be a component of retired individuals who typically need higher levels of healthcare services. There has been a concerted effort to develop the technology and bio-tech sectors of our economy, which I think is starting to bear fruit. Our wonderful University of Arizona has made some very powerful strides to commercialize their research and to help tech companies get up and running. Certain service sectors are also doing well perhaps largely because employment has picked up and there is more demand for services.”
The University of Arizona is one of the city’s largest employers. Others include Raytheon Missile Systems; Davis–Monthan Air Force Base; University of Arizona Health Network; and various mining companies.
“We frequently hear from employers that they have jobs they need to fill,” he says. “The range includes very highly skilled to technical and vocational to manual labor. Tucson’s unemployment level is below the national average, so it is possible to infer that organic growth of our economy is at the root of this demand for employees.”
With 320 days of sunshine each year, and bright blue skies, Varney says Tucson is a wonderful place to live and work. “The climate and natural beauty in Southern Arizona is very unique. Although we are a metro area of one million, there is still a little small town nature to the culture in terms of friendliness and neighbors helping neighbors.”
Unfortunately not all cities are as confident about hiring as Silicon Valley, Portland, Salt Lake and Tucson. The net employment outlook in Detroit, New Orleans and the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash area is a far weaker 5%–and those metropolitan areas aren’t even the worst.
The Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. metro area yields a net employment outlook of just 3% for the quarter.
Only 10% of employers in the California metropolis plan to hire between April and June, while 7% expect to reduce their staff levels. Eighty-two percent expect to maintain their current workforce—and the final 1% is uncertain.
“The outlook in the Oxnard region has been gradually declining since the third quarter of 2012,” Holmes says. “Although the net figure indicated employers expect to hire, their plans are the weakest among the 100 metropolitan statistical areas included in the survey.”
The good news: Employer optimism across the nation has been steadily gaining strength since the fourth quarter of 2009. “U.S. employers remain more conservative about hiring today versus prior to the recession; however, we’ve covered a lot of ground in the last three years. Although this recovery is much slower than those following previous recessions, U.S. employers’ hiring plans remain on a slow and steady upward trajectory,” Holmes says.
“We also achieved a positive milestone in the second-quarter survey results,” she adds. “The overall percentage of employers who anticipate staff reductions is at 5%. This is the smallest percentage of employers planning to reduce headcounts since the third quarter of 2000, when a 5% rate was also reported. It’s encouraging to see such a small segment of employers anticipating staff reductions.”
Article Authored By: (For Forbes Magazine)
Jacquelyn Smith, Forbes Staff
If it has to do with leadership, jobs, or careers, I'm on it.
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